7. Lookin At Lucky (3-1) The big dick Champion 2 year old will try again to prove his juvenile campaign was legit. His whole 3 year old campaign has been one big troubled trip. Stumbled, bumped, wide, steadied……..How much punishment can one horse take? I do believe Lookin At Lucky is an extremely talented horse but he’s had a rough 2010 and I’m gonna lean elsewhere in this spot. I’ve bet againt him as the favorite on 3 different occasions and beat him all 3 times. Nothing changes tomorrow.
8. Super Saver (5-2) KD 136 winner looks to pick up where he left off. Will be a different race with the lack of speed but his one certainly has the talent to adapt. You have to love Calvin Borel in this spot along with Todd Pletcher calling the shots but I absolutely do see a number of red flags when studying Super Saver. Will be running for the 4th time in 9 weeks including a 2 week turnaround after the Derby. This one might be due for some regression. Throw in an unsexy ML and Im gonna try to beat his ass.
9. Caracortado (10-1) Name is Spanish for Scarface. Kinda turns me on. This one started out 5 for 5 before faltering in the San Felipe and Santa Anita. Throw out that troubled trip in the Santa Anita as he was steadied at the 5/16’s pole. Training very well and fresh after missing out on KD 136. The pace may be perfect for Caracortado. Big red flag having connections foreign to the Triple Crown experience but certainly able to run a big race. Possible.
10. Paddy O’Prado (9-2) Derby show horse with Kent Desourmeaux aboard caught at the wire by Ice Box. Talented enough to adapt to the elements as witnessed by his effort in the Derby. Kinda leaning against the horses who are coming back after Churchill. So much to ask for. I like Paddy but again will try to beat him.
11. First Dude (20-1) If you knew nothing about horses you would probably bet this one because he has the word Dude in his name. Save yourself the trouble. Big step up for this one coming off 3 straight races in which he lost ground on the backstretch. Will most likely look to stalk and pounce but asking too much in this field.
12. Dublin (10-1) Garrett Gomez takes over after butchering Looking At Lucky’s chances in the Santa Anita and Kentucky Derby. 7th in the Derby and again asking alot to come back in 2 weeks to win this race from the far outside. I think Dublin will be a factor in this race but don’t see him being the first to the wire.
Picks: After checking in on all the so called experts selections, it looks like the 2 favorites will finish 1-2. I’m gonna agree to disagree and put a big X through all of the Derby starters including Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky. If they prevail then this will prove to be an extremely weak field. KD 136 was a debacle. Running back in 2 weeks against 19 other horses on a muddy track should drain your ass. I’m willing to look to the newcomers to prove me right.
My pick to win: Schoolyard Dreams
Top 4: Schoolyard Dreams, Lookin At Lucky, Caracortado, Super Saver.
Best of luck to all and always remember to leave your change at the window.