I’m sure most Big Rips readers have heard that Toronto Blue Jays pitcher, Jo-Jo Reyes, hadn’t won a start in 28 consecutive starts until his impressive 11-1 complete game win yesterday. It’s the longest losing streak for a starter in almost 30 years and I missed it. For a gambler this would be like seeing Halley’s Comet and hitting a 6 team parlay on the same day. Just doesn’t happen very often. I wasn’t sure how to analyze this infamous steak from a bettors point of view, but for fun I broke it down like this.
For arguments sakes let’s say I bet against Reyes on June 18, 2008, which was the beginning of the streak. The Braves – which was his current team – actually won 5-2 that day. Reyes pitched well, 7 IP 5 H 2 R 1 ER, nice line. For some reason I decide to keep betting against Reyes until he wins. Jo Jo’s teams (Braves and Blue Jays) go a whopping 6-21 since 6/18. To play the ‘what if ‘ game some more, let’s say he was always the underdog and I bet $500 against Reyes until he won. Over the 4 year period I would have netted $6,100 since his last win. Which doesn’t seem like a lot of money to win during the streak.
So to really make money, I think the smart thing to do is bet $6,100 against him next start. Jo Jo hasn’t won in almost 4 years, no way he wins back to back to starts, right?