Welcome to the first Saturday of College Football. To most the first few games before conference play consists of 4 and 5 touchdown spreads between fringe 1-A teams and big conference power houses. The rationale that I usually have is “I know they are going to kill them, but can do win by 40?” In many cases, like Wisconsin Thursday night, you bet the favorite and hold on for dear life that the scrubs don’t give up a 4th quarter TD and back door covers the line. My next go to move is find the ‘Big Name” team who is playing the out of conference game with a small spread, and bet the fav. A downfall of mine many times. Today I’m staying away from the big lines and betting a dog and an O/U.
3:35pm Troy University +16 at Clemson – I feel like for the last 10 years Clemson is a perennial National Championship favorite (on paper) and every year they lose early on and Big Mick says “Well, there goes the National Championship.” I don’t think they lose, but I hate giving 16, it’s like getting a 12 off the deal in blackjack. You need a lot to not happen to maintain a 16 point lead in a CFB game. Troy’s offense is very good, they almost beat Oklahoma State last year and Clemson is starting 8 first year starters on defense. Troy’s QB Corey Robinson was a freshman last year and was the New Orleans bowl MVP. In the past I’d bet the Tigers and text Mick around the 3rd quarter “Clemson sux”. I still might do that today, but at least I won’t be losing money when I do. Bet the Troy Trojans -16, sorry Mick no National Championship this year for Clemson.
7pm #12 South Carolina vs ECU O/U 62 pts – If South Carolina had a stable Qb situation I’d lay the -21, but they don’t. Last years started Stephen Garcia has been demoted and suspended for the 5th time in the off-season by the Ole’ Ball Coach, so the Gamecocks go with Sophomore Conor Shaw. ECU returns QB Dominique Davis who threw 37 TDs last year and the Gamecocks have Marcus Lattimore who as freshman scored 19 times and had this best games against lousy non-conference opponents. It’s a great combination of high scoring offense and coupled with ECU’s defense that allowed 44 points and almost 500 yards per game last year. Spurrier will have a short leash with Shaw so don’t be surprised to see Garcia off the bench if they trail early. I like this game to go over so bet the USC – ECU OVER of 61 1/2 points tonight.