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Archive for October, 2011

It’s been the year of the Chalk. I’ve been waiting for a weekend when everyone gets burned. NFL teases fail, the Top 10 CFB teams don’t cover or win and the obvious high scoring games go way under. If you’ve been betting the top consensus games on Wagerline.com then your book has probably been paying your mortgage each month this sports betting season. No one, not even Ace Rothstein could handicap this season. I’m going to try to stay consistent It’s like playing black jack at 3rd base all night, pick a strategy. If you are going to hit on 16 then hit on 16. Don’t waffle and pick and choose your moves. Here is my early picks as you enjoy your coffee and Pizzelle on another fine October morning in the Land of Milk and Honey…

12:05 pm Oklahoma State @ Missouri +7 1/2 – The Sooners have the 100 worst defense in the country, Mizzou has a top 15 Defense and a top 30 Offense. All three of their losses were on the road to top level teams – KSU, ASU and Oklahoma  – they were competitive in all three. The are getting much better on defense as Sheldon Richardson is starting which should stop the run and last week against Iowa they committed zero penalties. As good as Oklahoma State is on offense they converted a lousy 17% of their 3rd downs. Not a good stat when you are on the road playing a very good defense. Bet Mizzou +7 1/2 

Good luck,

-SD

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Sorry for the brief post. My Guy’s site is down and I’m on the phone with an offshore guy who doesn’t know who T.Y. Hilton is.

When CFB delivers a Tuesday game there is only two bets, the OVER and the Favorite. To make the Sun Belt Conference games interesting I think all games should be on Weekday nights, it makes the week fly by.

I’m betting the over 54 points for entertainment purposes only and taking my boy T.Y. Hilton OVER 6 receptions for the same reason. Hey it’s on ESPN and it beats some bad network TV and work emails.

Good luck,

-SD

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A new week and more free money for all tonight in the MNF game. We’ll need it as the cost for a jar of peanut  butter is about to increase by 30%-50%. Have you all heard about this yet?  I’ll write about this tomorrow. As for tonight’s game I am going to roll with these bets.

Miami @ The  Jets -6 1/2 – I thought long and hard about teasing this but didn’t want to mess with the O/U. I think the Jets crush the Fins. A “need to win game” for Miami coming off a bye doesn’t mean shit to me. They have a QB with fringe NFL talent in Matt Moore and the 31st worst pass defense in the league. They have no running threat so Rex Ryan should be able to focus on stopping B. Marsh and Bess. Bet the Jets 

Shonn Greene OVER 65 1/2 rushing yards – Ryan is committed to going back to Ground and Pound now that he realized Sanchez sucks. It’s promising that Greene got the ball over 20 times last week, I like one big run from him to seal this by the 3 quarter. Bet the over  

Good luck,

-SD

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A quiet day for me yesterday, had some nice winners in the early games, but had a wedding at night and a grade 6 migraine so I sat in my concussion dark room during the afternoon games. Today, is another glorious day in the Land of Milk and Honey. The hula girls are dancing, the sun is shining and the leaves are falling off the money tree as we come into the Fall season. After taking a look at the results of yesterdays games the public probably did very well again. Some very public bets came through; LSU, ‘Bama, Oklahoma State and Big Mick’s Clemson Tigers stormed back from 18 down. Any other year they lose that game in College Park, it might be Tajh Boyd & Co.’s year. The books are waiting for either CFB or the NFL to return to normal and if you play your cards correctly it will probably be the NFL. Here are my early NFL Sunday bets as you enjoy your Coffee and Pizzelle on another extraordinary NFL Sunday Morning.

Colts/ Bungles O/U First Half 20 1/2 points- The Bungles continue to have one of the best defenses in the NFL and the Colts are at the bottom of the barrel. In a bit of a random bet, I like Freeney and Mathis to be all over Dalton early. Dalton hasn’t faced a rush like this yet this year. I like this game to start out ugly before the Indy defense gets tired from being on the field too long, bet on low scoring in the first half, taking the UNDER of 20 1/2 points.

Packers O/U First Half 17 points – The Rams are terrible and got even worse in the bye week when they lost their starting QB who will be replaced by 52 year old Al Harris (a former Packer). The Pack had a quieter offensive output last weekend – still scored 25 points – this game has the makings of the Saints or Denver game. Lots of points for the Pack, bet the OVER 17 first half Pack total.

Pitt O/U First Half points 14 points – J’Ville has a top ten ‘D’, but Gabbert on the road with Polamalu running around in the secondary is a good bet for a pick 6 or an early J’Ville TO in their own territory. I like Pitt to roll the Jags early bet the OVER 14 first half Pitt total.

Bills @ Giants -190 – The Bills are 4-1 and coming off a very Sexy beat of the “Dream Team”. The GMen are limping into the Meadowlands after losing to Duceman’s Seachickens. Eli is a nightmare quarterback to bet on, how many times have you bet on Eli and then proceed to watch him get sacked 12 times and throw 3 picks? Fortunately for the Giants the Bills don’t pressure the QB well, they have just 5 sacks on the season and Shawne Merriman and is steroids are out. The GMen have a 3 headed wideout monster which includes Umass Alum Victor Cruz that the Bills won’t stop. The Bills gave up over 400 yards to the Bungles a few weeks ago and Jason Campbell three for 300+ on them. I like the Giants today, but not going to mess with -3, taking the ML -190.

Good luck and be sure to pace yourselves my degenerate friends,

-SD

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I don’t know what happened in the Bungles – J’Ville game yesterday. All I know is that we got fucked. I was out of pocket and checked my phone and saw the Bungles had the ball with :12 seconds left and it was 4th down. I assumed victory formation, then my account was down. Ok, I just caved and watched the low-light, top 5 bad beat for me. Oh well. You gotta pick yourself up when these things happen. Gonna roll with these bets on this glorious October Monday Night while I enjoy my Peroni and Pasta.

8:30 pm Bears +7 1/2 @ Lions – Chris Harris is back in the secondary for the Bears. Having Harris back is like the Polamalu-affect. One player on the defense totally changes the dynamic of the game. Chicago looked great on D when he wasn’t hurt. I’ll take a division rival getting a TD+ on MNF. Bet the Bears 7 1/2

Johnny Knox O/U 47 1/2 receiving yards – He has a reception in each game this year over 25 yards, bet on this going over

RIP “Are you ready for some Football!?!”,

-SD

 

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Everyone ready to dominate the NFL today? Well I am. First things first, I drank so much PBR last night I may have transformed into a hipster, so I preface this now just in case I have a losing day. Hipsters just don’t know sports. I’m still confident because I circled a few games yesterday before my PBR consumption. Let’s get to it as you enjoy your coffee and Pizzelle on this fine NFL Sunday morning…

1:00pm Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys – 1 1/2 – My career record betting on Romo is about 0-17. I dislike betting The Boys and my opinion is earlier this year was that they were going to suck. Rob Ryan has actually got their defense playing real well and it’s near the top in several key statistical categories. A team has to eventually stop Stafford to Calvin right? I think it’s today, bet the Cowboys – 1 1/2

1:00pm Buffalo @ Cincy +3 1/2 -Once again a very good defense against a smoking offense. Daulton to AJ Green works just fine when they have the ball. A very ugly game bet the Bungles +3 1/2

1:00pm 49ers @ Eagles -9 – There are three games that people will put in a 3 team tease at 1pm Philly, Saints and Bears. One will lose outright and ruin this tease. I like the Eagles to roll big. Bet them -9 and take their team total OVER 27.

1:00pm Saints @ J’Ville +10 – I’m anti New Orleans this year. They’ll start to kill people sooner than later, not falling victim to that. Bet Jacksonville at home getting +10

Good luck and be sure to pace yourselves,

-SD

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A solid start to the week with a couple of MLB prop bet close outs to help build up my base for another action packed College Football Saturday. But just to update everyone, my impeccable long-term bet streak came to a halt along with the Red Sox playoff hopes and Terry Francona’s job security. One of my big preseason bets was “Will John Lester win 15 1/2 games”. What an insane bet. I of course bet the over and was counting my chips in June when he had 10 wins. A stint on the DL and an epic Sox swoon, kept delaying the 16th victory. I even got some luck from the Gambling Gods as the Sox were pushed to the last day of season and Lester got the ball on 3 days rest. He pitched well enough to get the win and I was literally one pitch away in the bottom of the 9th on the 162nd game of the season from winning, but Papelbon gave up a ground rule double to Nolan “fucking” Reimold. I still have hope that Braun wins the MVP and I win it all back. Here are my CFB 12pm picks as you enjoy your coffee and Pizzelle on this fine October morning.

12:00 Northwestern +10 1/2 @ Illinois – In the spirit of the old Mike Kafka days, I’m betting the Wildcats here +10 1/2. They get their senior QB back – Dan Persa –  who is cut from the same cloth at Kafka. I like the stingy NW team that seems to keep these games close. The Illini are the talk of the Big Ten with a surprising 4-0 start. I still like the option run game and NW to keep it close.

12:00 Texas Tech @ Kansas +7 / +220 – I had this game circled as an upset alert and this morning, I’ve received three text messages from friends betting Texas Tech. Tech is always a perennial powerhouse  and can drop 5 TDs, but watch for Jordan Webb and the Jayhawks coming off a bye week. I’m vesting a lot in this game betting the Jayhawks +7, ML +220 and the Texas Tech 1H team Total over 19 points 

12:30 Buffalo @ Tennessee -28 – This isn’t your Ryan Fitzpatrick Buffalo team. I’m slightly concerned that Buffalo is 3-1 ATS, but Tennessee is another stratosphere compared to Buffalo when it comes to talent and they will be chomping at the bit to put some points on the board after a frustrating loss to the Gators and losing Justin Hunter with an ACL tear. They had a bye week to regroup and to practice with Hunter’s replacement. Bet the Tennessee first half team total OVER 22 and lay the -28 for the game.

Good luck and as always please be sure to pace yourselves my degenerate friends,

-SD

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