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And we’re live.  After Hampton Beach the finest people watching in New England. What’s the play today 5-6-9 tri box or just wait for Neumies pick?

Thanks TQuann for the great Pic

-SD
Sent via BlackBerry

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7.  Lookin At Lucky (3-1) The big dick Champion 2 year old will try again to prove his juvenile campaign was legit. His whole 3 year old campaign has been one big troubled trip. Stumbled, bumped, wide, steadied……..How much punishment can one horse take? I do believe Lookin At Lucky is an extremely talented horse but he’s had a rough 2010 and I’m gonna lean elsewhere in this spot. I’ve bet againt him as the favorite on 3 different occasions and beat him all 3 times. Nothing changes tomorrow.

8. Super Saver (5-2) KD 136 winner looks to pick up where he left off. Will be a different race with the lack of speed but his one certainly has the talent to adapt. You have to love Calvin Borel in this spot along with Todd Pletcher calling the shots but I absolutely do see a number of red flags when studying Super Saver. Will be running for the 4th time in 9 weeks including  a 2 week turnaround after the Derby. This one might be due for some regression. Throw in an unsexy ML and Im gonna try to beat his ass.

9. Caracortado (10-1) Name is Spanish for Scarface. Kinda turns me on. This one started out 5 for 5 before faltering in the San Felipe and Santa Anita. Throw out that troubled trip in the Santa Anita as he was steadied at the 5/16’s pole. Training very well and fresh after missing out on KD 136. The pace may be perfect for Caracortado. Big red flag having connections foreign to the Triple Crown experience but certainly able to run a big race. Possible.

10. Paddy O’Prado (9-2) Derby show horse with Kent Desourmeaux aboard caught at the wire by Ice Box. Talented enough to adapt to the elements as witnessed by his effort in the Derby. Kinda leaning against the horses who are coming back after Churchill. So much to ask for. I like Paddy but again will try to beat him.

11. First Dude (20-1) If you knew nothing about horses you would probably bet this one because he has the word Dude in his name. Save yourself the trouble. Big step up for this one coming off 3 straight races in which he lost ground on the backstretch. Will most likely look to stalk and pounce but asking too much in this field.

12. Dublin (10-1) Garrett Gomez takes over after butchering Looking At Lucky’s chances in the Santa Anita and Kentucky Derby. 7th in the Derby and again asking alot to come back in 2 weeks to win this race from the far outside. I think Dublin will be a factor in this race but don’t see him being the first to the wire.

Picks: After checking in on all the so called experts selections,  it looks like the 2 favorites will finish 1-2. I’m gonna agree to disagree and put a big X through all of the Derby starters including Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky. If they prevail then this will prove to be an extremely weak field. KD 136 was a debacle. Running back in 2 weeks against 19 other horses on a muddy track should drain your ass. I’m willing to look to the newcomers to prove me right.

My pick to win: Schoolyard Dreams

Top 4: Schoolyard Dreams, Lookin At Lucky, Caracortado, Super Saver.

Best of luck to all and always remember to leave your change at the window.

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12 horse race at Pimlico featuring Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. Lookin At Lucky (6th in the Derby) also returns along with Paddy O’Prado (3rd), Dublin (7th) and Jackson Bend (12th). Will set up to be a completely different race than KD 136 with the absence of speed. I’ve had success at Pimlico in the past and expect big things come Saturday evening. Herrrre we go:

1. Aikenite (20-1) Solid effort last time out in the Derby Trial finishing behind Hurriance Ike for the place.  However Eightyfiveinafifty set quick fractions that day allowing for Aikenite’s impressive run down the backstretch. I do not see the Preakness setting up as quick which doesn’t bode well for this horse. Career best Beyer that day in the slop. Pimlico looks to be dry. Throw in a 1-8 lifetime record and I’m gonna pass.

2. Schoolyard Dreams (15-1) Throw out his whiff last time out in the Wood in which Eskendereya made every horse in that field look like a bitch and this one seems to always fire. Impressive in the Tampa Bay Derby in which he outdueled Super Saver finishing a nose behind Odysseus. Training very well with 2 most recent workouts resulting in bullets. My only concern is the distance. I’ve watched his last 3 races and he’s lost ground on the backstretch in all 3. However, I think he made his move too early in 2 of those last 3 and simply tired out. I like the jockey switch to Coa. (Jockey/Trainer winning at a 27% clip) Price should be sexy. Using.

3. Pleasant Prince (20-1) My choice in the Derby Trial. Improved position but never a factor. Looks like he hit his peak 3 back finishing behind Ice Box in the Florida Derby. I question his recent form and I hold grudges. Nope.

4. Northern Giant (30-1) Some nice efforts in the Risen Star and Lane’s End but both races were trouble free with less than intimidating fields. Blown away by the likes of Super Saver, Dublin, and Line of David last time out in the Arkansas Derby. Can’t see this long shot shocking the world. Nah.

5. Yawanna Twist (30-1) I’ve followed this one for a little while now. I like him alot but am scared by the distance. 2nd best in the Gotham and Illinois behind Awesome Act and American Lion respectively. Some nice Beyers in his resume but pedigree favors shorter distances. Lightly raced but versatile and trained by Rick Dutrow who has a Preakness win under his belt. I already have 50 on him to win at 30-1. I would feel so much better about him if Awesome Act and American Lion fared better in the Derby. My longshot.

6. Jackson Bend (12-1) Every so called expert says the same thing about Jackson Bend. He tries hard and always fires. Yada yada yada. What have you done for me lately? 2 places behind Eskendereya a football field back in both and a debacle in the Derby finishing 19 back after a tough trip. 5 career wins. 0 career graded stakes wins. Siding with others.

I have chores to do (GTL minus the T) and don’t want to rush through this to get it done. I’ll have Part 2 completed later on this afternoon.

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Nice race this afternoon at Belmont. Could see a couple of these contenders in a few weeks in the Belmont Stakes. Herrrrrre we go:

Carnivore (10-1) 4 in the money finishes in 5 career races with his only off the board effort coming  against Eskendereya in the Wood. Training well with Bullets in 5 of his last 6. Worth a look to complete some exotics.

Drosselmeyer (2-1) Impressive horse. Could’ve competed in the Derby but lacked the funds to get in. Lots to like here with the exception of the 2-1 ML. Distance is right and Im a big Kent Desormeaux guy. I hate backing favorites but tough to lay off this one.

Turf Melody (12-1) Ran well in the Gotham 2 back earning a 91 Beyer but 0-4 in 4 graded stakes tries will point me elsewhere. Will need a career best effort.

Soaring Empire (5-1) Throw out his whiff in the Florida Derby last time out as he was bumped at the start and never really recovered. Lightly raced but pedigree suggests the distance to be correct. Will contend.

Remand (3-1) 2nd start off a layoff which may suggest a big effort. Past performances are all over the place. Sprint to a route. Poly to dirt. Blinkers on, blinkers off. Gotta trust the connections.

Codoy (15-1) Making his debut on the dirt. Alot to ask for in this field. Finished well in the Blue Grass which turned out to be a solid race that included the likes of Paddy O’Prado and Stately Victor. Career best came on the turf. Don’t like this spot.

Fly Down (7-2) Zito horse has a win at the distance and a show on the track. No match last time out in the Louisiana Derby. Training well with a nice pedigree. Include.

Picks: I love beating favorites. It kinda turns me on. But I can recognize a solid favorite when I see one and in this case I will put my LeBron winnings on Drosselmeyer. Would love to get 2-1 but doubt that line will stick.

Drosselmeyer 50 to win. Also key Drosselmeyer with Carnivore, Soaring Empire, Remand, and Fly Down for 10 and as always leave your change at the window.

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So last week Big Rips featured a new comer Dags who is our Ponies expert.  I have no idea how to bet horses, but I know it can be lucravite if you parlay, trifecta or superfecta the shit out of a a bunch of horses.  To put myself in a position to actually enjoy race season, I plan on flowing Dag’s blog site.  www.winplacedags.com.  His format is simple, Dags chooses a Race of the Week, then on Saturday before the race he posts his analysis and bets, to help everyone win some free money.

His Race of the Week for May 9th is the 9th Race from Belmont, Dwyer Stakes.  I don’t know what any of this means. Just go to winplacedags.com for his pick and thank me later.

Good luck

-SD

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Sloppy track at Churchill. First third of the card has been favoring the late closers. Rumor flying around that the rail seems to be deep. Here we go:

My horse to win is Awesome Act. If this shapes up like the Gotham I love Awesome Act to make his way through the traffic and pass his tiring rivals. Will also throw some win money on Stately Victor and Mission Impazible.

I like Paddy O’Prado in the exotics along with Ice Box,  Super Saver and Devil May Care.

Most of my bets will center around Awesome Act. Im hoping to get him at nothing less than 10-1.

Best of  luck and always remember to leave your change at the window.

-Dags

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Neumy!  Holy shit I just got hard.  Every year it seems like I miss Neumy’s Triple Crown Horse picks, I am always texting people who are by a TV to relay the NBC coverage to me.  Neumy usually pops on right before the race starts, when he is like 7-9 drinks deep, to give his final selection.  Last year I was at Scarborough Downs in Maine for the Preakness and was literally standing at the betting counter waiting to hear back from Duceman, Neumy never made his appearance, probably because he was off buying a Cougar a dry martini as he sipped his vodka tonic, the guy is the man.  So today I googled Bob Neumeier Kentucky Derby pick and found  his selections HERE!

His seems a bit torn in his write-up because the of the “deletion of (favorite) Eskendereya” and because of the conditions  and unproven field “the new battle plan looks to be murky and muddled, thanks to a combination of the synthetic-dirt questions and an even field of racing talent.”

Neumy goes on to make a few value picks (aka picks for people with no balls), wagering recommendations and then gives his To Win, which is Mission Impazible +1200.  I’m sold.  That’s all I need to hear.  Now if Dags posts his final selections and Mission Impazible is his pony then I will go absolutely nuts and empty my 401K on this horse.

Good luck

-SD

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