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Posts Tagged ‘NFL Bets’

 

I’m not going to belabor the point too much, but I don’t believe in Tim Tebow. If you have talked to me, read my posts or heard me call into the Felger & Mazz show in the last 2 months, you would know this. The facts are perfectly clear. Tim had a winning streak against less than mediocre opposing QBs,who couldn’t stay on the field. He won his first playoff game because of a horrid game plan by Dick Lebeau (who has to almost be in Joe Pa status), Ryan Clark’s sickle cell and a back up a center not being able to snap a shotgun pass. When Tim was in a position to win the game on their last possession in regulation Tim one hopped a wide open Demaryius Thomas, running a post on 3rd and 8. It showed Tim can’t string consecutive passes underneath, which plays perfectly into the Pats zone defense. Make him complete a shit load of passes if he does and can score a lot, then we are not good enough to be in the playoffs and we’d lose to the Ravens/ Texans next anyway. Here is  my pick which might surprise you as your enjoy your coffee and Pizelle on a cold, but at least there’s no snow, NFL Playoff Saturday in January.

Denver @ New England -20 1/2 – 20 1/2 what kind of line is that? Well My Guy offers “adjusted spreads” and if I’m that adamant that this is going to be blow out city, I have to put my money where my mouth is. Also is +230. I rarely predict scores (I think I’m 2-0 this year when I do) Give me the Pats rolling the Willis McGahee lead Denver Broncos at 41-17, bet the 13 1/2 and 20 1/2.

Saints vs 49ers – 3 1/2 – Once again I’m going with the adjusted line idea. I don’t love this bet as much as the Pats but I like the payout, bet San Fran -3 1/2 +255

Props:

McGahee & Ball vs BJGE & Woodhead +24 1/2 receiving and rushing yards – I  like the Pats tandem in this especially if they go with the hurry up, you’ll see more of Woodhead than Ridely or Benny. For good or bad Woodhead always seems to be apart of the Belichick’s game plan in crucial games.

Tom Brady O/U 2 1/2 TD passes – According to my score prediction they run away with this one and that means lots of Brady to Gronk, Welker and don’t be surprised if Ocho grabs one. Bet the OVER 2 1/2.  

Frank Gore O/U 76 yards rushing – Give me the over, the best game plan for the 49ers is for them to grind it out with Gore and to keep the Saints off the field. I Like a

David Akers 8 1/2 points – One of the best kicking seasons of all time, a grinder of game, maybe a funny 18-14 final...I like Akers OVER 8 1/2 points. 

Will Brady Quinn see the field before the 4th quarter Yes +150 / No -120 – If this prop was real I’d bet Yes for a lot of money. How else will Denver pass themselves back into this game?

Good luck, be sure to pace yourselves my degenerate friends,

-SD

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It feels good to be back to normal. I looked at the blog feed and it’s been some time since I’ve contributed.  Like I mentioned earlier today I’ve been deathly ill with no hot nurse to take care of me, I even put out a Craigslist ad try to pull one into the Big Rips lair. Of course to no avail. Before you say “Seth you’re a pussy it was probably just the flu” well it wasn’t and I don’t go down easy either. The last time I was sick and took days off was the week of July 4th 2005, trust me I have an elephant’s memory. The best way I can describe how I felt is this – imagine having the flu and your worst hangover after drinking cheap Red Bull vodkas for a night. That’s what I got.

Over the past few weeks some really positive things have happened.

1) The NBA lockout ended the Greatest Bar does not have to shut down! My early NBA MVP bets (put them in today) Kevin Love +1800 and John Wall +4000.

2) Ryan Braun won the MVP, a nice pay-day, but more of a moral victory.

3) Bobby Valentine was hired as the Red Sox Manager, this is great for a Yankees fan living in Boston, he’s a walking soundbite.

4) The Human Centipede 2 is on iTunes.

5) Danny Ainge took my theory and is dangling Rondo for Paul (I’ve been talking about this for a year) a move that makes the Celtics immediately better and puts us in a position to go after Dwight Howard next summer, IF we can sign Chris Paul to a deal…with Danny and Doc this can happen, just need to get the trade done. I can go on for hours about this, call me if you want to discuss/debate.

On to some bets as I put back a Peroni and some gnocchi on a surprisingly pleasant December evening.

8:30pm Eagles -2 1/2 @ Seahawks – Does the NFL Network ever put on a decent Thursday night game? I feel like it’s always a game that features one of the following teams, J’Ville, Denver, Oakland and Tennessee. Along with a bad match-up you are subjected to horrible coverage. Get ready to not see a Punt return for a TD by Leon Washington, because the Network needs to make sure you see the promo for their new Deion Sanders and Mooch cooking show.  This game has zero implications, both teams are done, the only purpose to them playing it betting and fantasy football purposes. I’m betting a parlay Eagles -2 1/2 under 44. I’ve tried the bet the ‘Hawks because they are good at home” thing, but failed. Straight up the Eagles are better even with Vince. They are a top 15 defense and have the best running game in the league. Tarvaris Jackson is ailing and if he goes Mick’s boy Charlie Whitehurst who couldn’t even start for Clemson now, will be in the game. Bet the Eagles 2 1/2 and the under 44. 

Also betting Vince Young longest pass completion OVER 35 1/2 – DeSean Jackson on a catch a run from Vince, this happens

Good luck,

-SD

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A quiet day for me yesterday, had some nice winners in the early games, but had a wedding at night and a grade 6 migraine so I sat in my concussion dark room during the afternoon games. Today, is another glorious day in the Land of Milk and Honey. The hula girls are dancing, the sun is shining and the leaves are falling off the money tree as we come into the Fall season. After taking a look at the results of yesterdays games the public probably did very well again. Some very public bets came through; LSU, ‘Bama, Oklahoma State and Big Mick’s Clemson Tigers stormed back from 18 down. Any other year they lose that game in College Park, it might be Tajh Boyd & Co.’s year. The books are waiting for either CFB or the NFL to return to normal and if you play your cards correctly it will probably be the NFL. Here are my early NFL Sunday bets as you enjoy your Coffee and Pizzelle on another extraordinary NFL Sunday Morning.

Colts/ Bungles O/U First Half 20 1/2 points- The Bungles continue to have one of the best defenses in the NFL and the Colts are at the bottom of the barrel. In a bit of a random bet, I like Freeney and Mathis to be all over Dalton early. Dalton hasn’t faced a rush like this yet this year. I like this game to start out ugly before the Indy defense gets tired from being on the field too long, bet on low scoring in the first half, taking the UNDER of 20 1/2 points.

Packers O/U First Half 17 points – The Rams are terrible and got even worse in the bye week when they lost their starting QB who will be replaced by 52 year old Al Harris (a former Packer). The Pack had a quieter offensive output last weekend – still scored 25 points – this game has the makings of the Saints or Denver game. Lots of points for the Pack, bet the OVER 17 first half Pack total.

Pitt O/U First Half points 14 points – J’Ville has a top ten ‘D’, but Gabbert on the road with Polamalu running around in the secondary is a good bet for a pick 6 or an early J’Ville TO in their own territory. I like Pitt to roll the Jags early bet the OVER 14 first half Pitt total.

Bills @ Giants -190 – The Bills are 4-1 and coming off a very Sexy beat of the “Dream Team”. The GMen are limping into the Meadowlands after losing to Duceman’s Seachickens. Eli is a nightmare quarterback to bet on, how many times have you bet on Eli and then proceed to watch him get sacked 12 times and throw 3 picks? Fortunately for the Giants the Bills don’t pressure the QB well, they have just 5 sacks on the season and Shawne Merriman and is steroids are out. The GMen have a 3 headed wideout monster which includes Umass Alum Victor Cruz that the Bills won’t stop. The Bills gave up over 400 yards to the Bungles a few weeks ago and Jason Campbell three for 300+ on them. I like the Giants today, but not going to mess with -3, taking the ML -190.

Good luck and be sure to pace yourselves my degenerate friends,

-SD

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A good day yesterday, finished up in the Black so I’m happy any time I can do that. Did a quick scan of the picks and looks as though Big Rips delivered a significant amount of winners. Yesterday was also a special day too, because if you recall I posted my long term baseball locks before the season started. Ryan Braun hit his 31st home run. Winner. More importantly I bet Braun at +2250 to win the NL MVP. It was his 3rd HR in two nights, he also had a walk off last week and he joined the 30/30 club. The Brew Crew are rolling and Braun seems poised to win the NL MVP. I’m really excited. On to the NFL Week 2 plays…

All the talk this week has been about offense, points, yards and touchdowns, because last week NFL teams scored a shit ton of points.

  • 13 of the 16 games went over.
  • There were 14 Quarterbacks that tossed for more than 300 yards.
  • 13 Quarterbacks had a better than 100% QB rating.
  • 20 Quarterbacks completed 60% of their passes.

Factoid for you: Of the 13 games that went over last week the average amount they went over by was 7 points. Two of the games went under by less than 3 points. The  Tennessee  vs Jacksonville game was the only game that you would have lost if you teased it down (in a 2 team tease, but not 3 teamer). Mind blowing. Like I’ve said many times this year, my philosophy early on is simple. No OTAs, short training camp, no mini-camp = out of shape players. Less in shape players on offense running downfield have an advantage over defensive players not in shape, running sideways or backwards. Couple it with the fact that it’s a QB – WO, pro Fantasy Football league and you have recipe for Arena Football-esque scores. Here are my picks as you enjoy your coffee and Pizzelle on this fine NFL Sunday morning…

1:00 pm 3 Team Teaser: Jets Pick ‘Em, Baltimore & Tennessee OVER 29 1/2 & Detroit & Chiefs OVER 36: We saw plenty of Offensive from Baltimore, Jets host a terrible J’Ville squad and the Chiefs best defensive player is out for the season. Matt Stafford is a stud and should move it all day.  Love the numbers here and needing just a win from the Jets. Bet the 3 teamer 

1:00 pm Choke-land @ Buff-Nasty -3: I commented last night when I was drunk that 75% of teams that win/cover on Monday night lose on Sunday. I’m not sure if that number is exactly accurate, but if you believe a lie is true than it becomes the truth. Seriously, I read one time that teams that win on MNF lose at a high clip on Sunday. Fact. I like this too because Oakland wins a big one in Mile High, jaunts up to Oakland then has to criss cross to Upstate New York. Lots travel and a short week for an un-disciplined team. Sign me up. Bet Buffalo -3

Still waiting for some Team Totals to post on my site…be back in a few…please don’t forget to pace yourselves it’s a long day…

Good luck,

-SD

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