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Can you believe it’s been 217 days since Super Bowel 46? 2012 marks the 11th anniversary of me betting on Football (I forgot to celebrate my 10th anniversary last year). I guess celebrating my 10 year would have been nostalgic, unfortunately it’s a bittersweet memory. Remember the story of my first college bookie, Julian, who stiffed me $981 during my Umass winter break? Here’s the post if you need a refresher. So this year is all about celebrating my Undecennial betting season.

Betting football is a funny thing. When I think about 11 years of NFL betting, I start to think if I found another hobby 11 years ago such as writing, playing tennis, computer programming, reading, cooking, playing the guitar, biking, hiking, woodworking, running, sailing or maybe geocaching. I met my maker when I was introduced to Julian and got that infamous 413 phone number. My fate was sealed that first NFL September weekend in Amherst when I won my first NFL bet. I remember that day like my first day of Kindergarten. The windows open at my North Pleasant Street digs on a breezy, sunny Sunday afternoon. I was probably betting the Peyton Manning led Colts who rolled Vinny Testarverde and the Jets 45-24, while I enjoyed a cold, leftover Buffer Zone from D.P. Dough.

It’s remarkable thing that during this time it’s still a challenge to beat the man. You would think that if you spent the 11 years working on a hobby, you’d become an expert, or at the very least better than average.  Maybe I should have spent the last 11 years learning to sail around the world or becoming a world-class cook. I’d have a lot more money, far fewer depressing Sunday nights and ten toes still. There is one thing that we all know. No sailer has ever felt the rush you get when you hit a back door cover with no time on the clock. No Foodie has ever felt the adrenaline pump through your body when a Dollar AR hits on the Sunday Night Football game to get to back to even on the week. And NO Google Code writer has experienced the thrill you get when you high-five your Bros after you all hit the OVER of the Monday NIght Football game.

I love football.

For your reading pleasure my Week 1 picks as you enjoy your coffee and Pizzelle on this glorious September Boston morning.

1pm Buffalo @ NY Jets -2.5 – You can thank ESPN for this line dropping from 7 to 2.5. The story all offseason has been what will Rex Ryan do with Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow and how the Jets can’t put the ball in the end zone. The fact of the matter is that Mark Sanchez is the starting QB and Tim Tebow will step on the field for the pre-game warmups, when he runs off during halftime and at the end of the game for the post game prayer/celebration. Like many of you I hate betting on Mark Sanchez, but would you rather put money on Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road who is 1-5 against the Jets? I feel a lot more confident betting on a really good Jets D against a shaky Fitzpatrick. Bet the Jets -2.5

1pm Miami @ Houston -12.5 – Don’t fear the big line, embrace it. This should be the biggest thumping in Week 1. Miami has a Rookie QB, new coach and no weapons. I’ll take side action that Matt Moore replaces Ryan Tannehill by the 4th quater. Why I love this. Even with Mario Williams leaving, Houston still has top ranked defense. Plus, Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, J.J. Watt, Andrew Johnson all have a chip on their shoulder after last year when they were in perfect position to make it to the SB before Schaub was injured. The Texans were still able to make it to the 2nd round in the playoffs behind TJ Yates. I don’t usually predict scores, but here is one Texans 38 – Miami 6. 

1pm Rams +9 @ Detroit – The Public loves betting the team that puts up the big numbers, but watch out here for a possible upset.  For me Sam Bradford is on a short  betting leash, if he’s going to do well it’s today, the Lions just made their starting Safety and CB inactive.  They Rams will also be better coached with Jeff Fisher and one thing to note, Fisher is one of the best NFL coaches ATS . Take the points 

Seth’s Free Money Three Team Tease Bears -1, Eagles -1 & Texans/ Dolphins Total 32.5 

I’ll be back for the 4pms, which kickoff this year at 4:25pm. Good luck and as always be sure to pace yourselves my degenerate friends.

-Seth

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Hello Friends

will-return-clock

September 5th…

-Seth

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I’m not going to belabor the point too much, but I don’t believe in Tim Tebow. If you have talked to me, read my posts or heard me call into the Felger & Mazz show in the last 2 months, you would know this. The facts are perfectly clear. Tim had a winning streak against less than mediocre opposing QBs,who couldn’t stay on the field. He won his first playoff game because of a horrid game plan by Dick Lebeau (who has to almost be in Joe Pa status), Ryan Clark’s sickle cell and a back up a center not being able to snap a shotgun pass. When Tim was in a position to win the game on their last possession in regulation Tim one hopped a wide open Demaryius Thomas, running a post on 3rd and 8. It showed Tim can’t string consecutive passes underneath, which plays perfectly into the Pats zone defense. Make him complete a shit load of passes if he does and can score a lot, then we are not good enough to be in the playoffs and we’d lose to the Ravens/ Texans next anyway. Here is  my pick which might surprise you as your enjoy your coffee and Pizelle on a cold, but at least there’s no snow, NFL Playoff Saturday in January.

Denver @ New England -20 1/2 – 20 1/2 what kind of line is that? Well My Guy offers “adjusted spreads” and if I’m that adamant that this is going to be blow out city, I have to put my money where my mouth is. Also is +230. I rarely predict scores (I think I’m 2-0 this year when I do) Give me the Pats rolling the Willis McGahee lead Denver Broncos at 41-17, bet the 13 1/2 and 20 1/2.

Saints vs 49ers – 3 1/2 – Once again I’m going with the adjusted line idea. I don’t love this bet as much as the Pats but I like the payout, bet San Fran -3 1/2 +255

Props:

McGahee & Ball vs BJGE & Woodhead +24 1/2 receiving and rushing yards – I  like the Pats tandem in this especially if they go with the hurry up, you’ll see more of Woodhead than Ridely or Benny. For good or bad Woodhead always seems to be apart of the Belichick’s game plan in crucial games.

Tom Brady O/U 2 1/2 TD passes – According to my score prediction they run away with this one and that means lots of Brady to Gronk, Welker and don’t be surprised if Ocho grabs one. Bet the OVER 2 1/2.  

Frank Gore O/U 76 yards rushing – Give me the over, the best game plan for the 49ers is for them to grind it out with Gore and to keep the Saints off the field. I Like a

David Akers 8 1/2 points – One of the best kicking seasons of all time, a grinder of game, maybe a funny 18-14 final...I like Akers OVER 8 1/2 points. 

Will Brady Quinn see the field before the 4th quarter Yes +150 / No -120 – If this prop was real I’d bet Yes for a lot of money. How else will Denver pass themselves back into this game?

Good luck, be sure to pace yourselves my degenerate friends,

-SD

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A good day yesterday, finished up in the Black so I’m happy any time I can do that. Did a quick scan of the picks and looks as though Big Rips delivered a significant amount of winners. Yesterday was also a special day too, because if you recall I posted my long term baseball locks before the season started. Ryan Braun hit his 31st home run. Winner. More importantly I bet Braun at +2250 to win the NL MVP. It was his 3rd HR in two nights, he also had a walk off last week and he joined the 30/30 club. The Brew Crew are rolling and Braun seems poised to win the NL MVP. I’m really excited. On to the NFL Week 2 plays…

All the talk this week has been about offense, points, yards and touchdowns, because last week NFL teams scored a shit ton of points.

  • 13 of the 16 games went over.
  • There were 14 Quarterbacks that tossed for more than 300 yards.
  • 13 Quarterbacks had a better than 100% QB rating.
  • 20 Quarterbacks completed 60% of their passes.

Factoid for you: Of the 13 games that went over last week the average amount they went over by was 7 points. Two of the games went under by less than 3 points. The  Tennessee  vs Jacksonville game was the only game that you would have lost if you teased it down (in a 2 team tease, but not 3 teamer). Mind blowing. Like I’ve said many times this year, my philosophy early on is simple. No OTAs, short training camp, no mini-camp = out of shape players. Less in shape players on offense running downfield have an advantage over defensive players not in shape, running sideways or backwards. Couple it with the fact that it’s a QB – WO, pro Fantasy Football league and you have recipe for Arena Football-esque scores. Here are my picks as you enjoy your coffee and Pizzelle on this fine NFL Sunday morning…

1:00 pm 3 Team Teaser: Jets Pick ‘Em, Baltimore & Tennessee OVER 29 1/2 & Detroit & Chiefs OVER 36: We saw plenty of Offensive from Baltimore, Jets host a terrible J’Ville squad and the Chiefs best defensive player is out for the season. Matt Stafford is a stud and should move it all day.  Love the numbers here and needing just a win from the Jets. Bet the 3 teamer 

1:00 pm Choke-land @ Buff-Nasty -3: I commented last night when I was drunk that 75% of teams that win/cover on Monday night lose on Sunday. I’m not sure if that number is exactly accurate, but if you believe a lie is true than it becomes the truth. Seriously, I read one time that teams that win on MNF lose at a high clip on Sunday. Fact. I like this too because Oakland wins a big one in Mile High, jaunts up to Oakland then has to criss cross to Upstate New York. Lots travel and a short week for an un-disciplined team. Sign me up. Bet Buffalo -3

Still waiting for some Team Totals to post on my site…be back in a few…please don’t forget to pace yourselves it’s a long day…

Good luck,

-SD

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Well boys it’s here.  Like I said earlier this offseason I wish they locked out every year.  The anticipation has been epic.  It’s almost as if they skipped two seasons, when all we missed out on was the Hall of Fame Game and a season of HBO’s Hard Knocks.  Tonight, I have three bets for you.

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers O/U 49 1/2 –  I was watching a pre-season game with the ESPN guys last week and John Gruden (who i think is good) and Mike Tirico were commenting on the Pack – Saints game tonight.

Gruden said  something to the effect “Michael, can’t you wait to see those two offenses light up the score board next Thursday?”

Tirico -“Yes, coach two high powered offenses, I can’t wait to bet the Over with everyone else in America…”

Ok, so I made that last part up, but honestly who isn’t betting the over tonight?  All you we have in our heads is Brees, Rogers, points, touchdowns, not necessarily  in that order. One thing we should keep in mind is that New Orleans had the #4 defense last year and the Packers allowed just 15 points per game (#2 to Pitt).  Both teams have no running game and the Saints have upgraded their front three which should be really good and cause some issues for Rogers.  Tonight I am betting the under 49 1/2 points, as the rest of America hopes and prays for 7 TDs and a safety.

Player Prop – Jordy Nelson over 37 1/2 receiving yards, his last 5 games last year his yards per game were 140, 67, 79, 39 & 124. Bet the over 37 1/2 yards

Player Prop – Jimmy Graham +900 to score the games first TD, bet yes. I followed him in the pre-season. He is more of a WO than a TE and is turning into Brees’s favorite target 

Good luck,

-SD

 

 

 

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How is everyone’s summer going?  Now that Football is officially back, Big Rips is gearing up for a very exciting and profitable season.  I’m thinking lots of favorites and the over winners this year…

I’ll be posting my WGC-Bridgestone picks this Wednesday as Tiger is making a mini comeback from his injury.  I can’t wait to see his odds, the man as won this event 7 times, you can’t pass on that history.

Be back later in the week, have a strong month.

-SD

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It’s time to ball up.  There is plenty to bet on and with pages upon pages of props, overs and point spreads, to make money. My advice for the next 4 hours is to shut the ESPN, FOX and NFL Network coverage off, don’t bother polling your friends, just go with your gut.  I feel like today the regular season and playoffs doesn’t matter.  It’s  one game season and all of the ‘matchups’, back stories and bullshit is just fodder for the analysts to talk about for two weeks.

Today marks the 5th year anniversary of when the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XL.  It was a glorious day at the old Big Rips HQ.  I clearly remember the victory because our good friend Hammer was a tossing a 20lb dumbbell around our apartment onto our hardwood floors once the game ended.  No he didn’t have the Seachchickens, he was doing this out of joy as well all won a significant amount of money on the Steelers.  The rest of us joined him in celebrating by doing a few shot-put tosses ourselves.  I’m sure our antics that night contributed our neighbors moving out shortly after.  Hey it’s the Super Bowl, put the women and children to bed and lets go make some money.

How long will it take for Christina Aguilera to sing the National Anthem, bet the OVER of 1 minute 56 seconds (-200)

How long will Christina Aguilera hold the word Brave during the National Anthem, bet the OVER of 6 seconds

Heath Miller o/u 38 1/2 receiving yards, bet the OVER

First punt o/u 44 1/2 yards, bet the UNDER

Donald Driver vs Hines Ward more receiving yards, Bet Driver -1 yard

Two Team Teaser, bet Pitt +9 / over 39.5

Hopefully we are all tossing weights around in celebration later tonight,

Good luck

-SD

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