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Posts Tagged ‘Sports Betting’

Can you believe it’s been 217 days since Super Bowel 46? 2012 marks the 11th anniversary of me betting on Football (I forgot to celebrate my 10th anniversary last year). I guess celebrating my 10 year would have been nostalgic, unfortunately it’s a bittersweet memory. Remember the story of my first college bookie, Julian, who stiffed me $981 during my Umass winter break? Here’s the post if you need a refresher. So this year is all about celebrating my Undecennial betting season.

Betting football is a funny thing. When I think about 11 years of NFL betting, I start to think if I found another hobby 11 years ago such as writing, playing tennis, computer programming, reading, cooking, playing the guitar, biking, hiking, woodworking, running, sailing or maybe geocaching. I met my maker when I was introduced to Julian and got that infamous 413 phone number. My fate was sealed that first NFL September weekend in Amherst when I won my first NFL bet. I remember that day like my first day of Kindergarten. The windows open at my North Pleasant Street digs on a breezy, sunny Sunday afternoon. I was probably betting the Peyton Manning led Colts who rolled Vinny Testarverde and the Jets 45-24, while I enjoyed a cold, leftover Buffer Zone from D.P. Dough.

It’s remarkable thing that during this time it’s still a challenge to beat the man. You would think that if you spent the 11 years working on a hobby, you’d become an expert, or at the very least better than average.  Maybe I should have spent the last 11 years learning to sail around the world or becoming a world-class cook. I’d have a lot more money, far fewer depressing Sunday nights and ten toes still. There is one thing that we all know. No sailer has ever felt the rush you get when you hit a back door cover with no time on the clock. No Foodie has ever felt the adrenaline pump through your body when a Dollar AR hits on the Sunday Night Football game to get to back to even on the week. And NO Google Code writer has experienced the thrill you get when you high-five your Bros after you all hit the OVER of the Monday NIght Football game.

I love football.

For your reading pleasure my Week 1 picks as you enjoy your coffee and Pizzelle on this glorious September Boston morning.

1pm Buffalo @ NY Jets -2.5 – You can thank ESPN for this line dropping from 7 to 2.5. The story all offseason has been what will Rex Ryan do with Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow and how the Jets can’t put the ball in the end zone. The fact of the matter is that Mark Sanchez is the starting QB and Tim Tebow will step on the field for the pre-game warmups, when he runs off during halftime and at the end of the game for the post game prayer/celebration. Like many of you I hate betting on Mark Sanchez, but would you rather put money on Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road who is 1-5 against the Jets? I feel a lot more confident betting on a really good Jets D against a shaky Fitzpatrick. Bet the Jets -2.5

1pm Miami @ Houston -12.5 – Don’t fear the big line, embrace it. This should be the biggest thumping in Week 1. Miami has a Rookie QB, new coach and no weapons. I’ll take side action that Matt Moore replaces Ryan Tannehill by the 4th quater. Why I love this. Even with Mario Williams leaving, Houston still has top ranked defense. Plus, Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, J.J. Watt, Andrew Johnson all have a chip on their shoulder after last year when they were in perfect position to make it to the SB before Schaub was injured. The Texans were still able to make it to the 2nd round in the playoffs behind TJ Yates. I don’t usually predict scores, but here is one Texans 38 – Miami 6. 

1pm Rams +9 @ Detroit – The Public loves betting the team that puts up the big numbers, but watch out here for a possible upset.  For me Sam Bradford is on a short  betting leash, if he’s going to do well it’s today, the Lions just made their starting Safety and CB inactive.  They Rams will also be better coached with Jeff Fisher and one thing to note, Fisher is one of the best NFL coaches ATS . Take the points 

Seth’s Free Money Three Team Tease Bears -1, Eagles -1 & Texans/ Dolphins Total 32.5 

I’ll be back for the 4pms, which kickoff this year at 4:25pm. Good luck and as always be sure to pace yourselves my degenerate friends.

-Seth

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I don’t know what happened in the Bungles – J’Ville game yesterday. All I know is that we got fucked. I was out of pocket and checked my phone and saw the Bungles had the ball with :12 seconds left and it was 4th down. I assumed victory formation, then my account was down. Ok, I just caved and watched the low-light, top 5 bad beat for me. Oh well. You gotta pick yourself up when these things happen. Gonna roll with these bets on this glorious October Monday Night while I enjoy my Peroni and Pasta.

8:30 pm Bears +7 1/2 @ Lions – Chris Harris is back in the secondary for the Bears. Having Harris back is like the Polamalu-affect. One player on the defense totally changes the dynamic of the game. Chicago looked great on D when he wasn’t hurt. I’ll take a division rival getting a TD+ on MNF. Bet the Bears 7 1/2

Johnny Knox O/U 47 1/2 receiving yards – He has a reception in each game this year over 25 yards, bet on this going over

RIP “Are you ready for some Football!?!”,

-SD

 

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A good day yesterday, finished up in the Black so I’m happy any time I can do that. Did a quick scan of the picks and looks as though Big Rips delivered a significant amount of winners. Yesterday was also a special day too, because if you recall I posted my long term baseball locks before the season started. Ryan Braun hit his 31st home run. Winner. More importantly I bet Braun at +2250 to win the NL MVP. It was his 3rd HR in two nights, he also had a walk off last week and he joined the 30/30 club. The Brew Crew are rolling and Braun seems poised to win the NL MVP. I’m really excited. On to the NFL Week 2 plays…

All the talk this week has been about offense, points, yards and touchdowns, because last week NFL teams scored a shit ton of points.

  • 13 of the 16 games went over.
  • There were 14 Quarterbacks that tossed for more than 300 yards.
  • 13 Quarterbacks had a better than 100% QB rating.
  • 20 Quarterbacks completed 60% of their passes.

Factoid for you: Of the 13 games that went over last week the average amount they went over by was 7 points. Two of the games went under by less than 3 points. The  Tennessee  vs Jacksonville game was the only game that you would have lost if you teased it down (in a 2 team tease, but not 3 teamer). Mind blowing. Like I’ve said many times this year, my philosophy early on is simple. No OTAs, short training camp, no mini-camp = out of shape players. Less in shape players on offense running downfield have an advantage over defensive players not in shape, running sideways or backwards. Couple it with the fact that it’s a QB – WO, pro Fantasy Football league and you have recipe for Arena Football-esque scores. Here are my picks as you enjoy your coffee and Pizzelle on this fine NFL Sunday morning…

1:00 pm 3 Team Teaser: Jets Pick ‘Em, Baltimore & Tennessee OVER 29 1/2 & Detroit & Chiefs OVER 36: We saw plenty of Offensive from Baltimore, Jets host a terrible J’Ville squad and the Chiefs best defensive player is out for the season. Matt Stafford is a stud and should move it all day.  Love the numbers here and needing just a win from the Jets. Bet the 3 teamer 

1:00 pm Choke-land @ Buff-Nasty -3: I commented last night when I was drunk that 75% of teams that win/cover on Monday night lose on Sunday. I’m not sure if that number is exactly accurate, but if you believe a lie is true than it becomes the truth. Seriously, I read one time that teams that win on MNF lose at a high clip on Sunday. Fact. I like this too because Oakland wins a big one in Mile High, jaunts up to Oakland then has to criss cross to Upstate New York. Lots travel and a short week for an un-disciplined team. Sign me up. Bet Buffalo -3

Still waiting for some Team Totals to post on my site…be back in a few…please don’t forget to pace yourselves it’s a long day…

Good luck,

-SD

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Last weekend it was a million. Are we thinking 5 million is that too much to win this weekend? To be honest I’m somewhat nervous. You know how old schools books use to break knees and thumbs to get paid. Well I think since we are hammering all the books and online sites they may come after Big Rips to break our extremities to get us to stop posting winners. It’s the risk you take being a sports betting blog conglomerate.  Yo, hugedomains.com we’re coming after just BigRips.com. Here are some winners as you enjoy your coffee and Pizzelle on this fine College Football Saturday morning…

12:00 pm #21 Auburn @ Clemson -3 – Auburn has had a horse shoe up their ass the first two weeks. They sneaked by Utah State and held off Mississippi, both games should have been loses.  But they weren’t and Aurburn might be the team that everyone keeps betting against “because they suck” and they continue to win.  I’ll take the risk and bet the home ACC team. Clemson finds a way to fuck me at least 2-3 times a year and they have played less than stellar competition in Troy and Wofford.  Still I like Tajh Boyd against a weak Auburn defense.  Bet Big Mick’s Tigers -3.

3:30 pm Tennessee +10/ +290 @ #16 Florida – This isn’t your Phillip Fulmer/ Lane Kiffin Volunteers.  The Vols have dropped a shocking 10 straight at the Swamp, if you bet/ watched the Bearcats (had Cinnci +4) Tennessee game last weekend you would know that the Vols can chuck it. Florida statistically has the #1 defense in the country, allowing just 1 1/2 points per game, 3 for the year. Something has to give as that was against a couple bottom feeders Florida Atlantic and UAB. Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers are Monsters, they can’t be stopped. I’m on the Vols +10 and the money line +290.

7:00 Idaho @ Texas A&M -35 – Forget all the SEC distraction bull for A&M.  I love this team this year. They could turn into my 2nd Whisky. They have an NFL coach, Mike Sherman, who runs a Pro-Style offense.  They rolled the sexy pick SMU team in week one by 32 and now face a hopeless Vandals football team who gave up almost 500 yards to Bowling Green. This could get out of hand quick so bet the first half -21 and lay the -35 for the game.

10:45 #6 Stanford @ Arizona – Don’t let the #6 in front of Stanford and Andrew Luck sway you. I see bedlam around 11ish pm in Tuscon. Secure the goal posts. Bet the Wildcats +9

Good luck for now and as always don’t forget to pace yourself my degenerate friends…

-SD

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A pretty good day going, who knew FCS teams could hang with D1 teams for so long. I’ve got one more bet and I’m canning it until the NFL tomorrow…unless there is a guaranteed winner later on…

7:00 pm Georgia Tech @ Middle Tennessee State  +12 1/2 +370 – There is an upset brewing in the Middle of Tennessee tonight. The Blue Raiders who hung with Purdue hosts a very average Yellow Jackets team.  MTSU’s QB Logan Kilgore is legit, very accurate and what I’ve read is a future NFL prospect. Mid Tenn should roll in the Sun Belt league and possibly sneak a big non-conference win tonight.  The Raiders have a very good returning defense, their pass D was 30th in the country last year so it should slow down Ga Tech’s Tevin Washington.  The line was 10 1/2 a couple hours ago now it’s 12 1/2. I’m buying it to +13 and betting the ML +370.

Good luck,

-SD

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God Whisky is a beast, that game was over before OSU fans took their morning piss.

I’ve got two bets this afternoon, actually make that three, I just called an audible mid-blog post.

3:30 pm Cincinnati Bearcats +4 1/2 @ Tennessee O/U 55 – Both teams had cream puffs in Week 1 (Austin Peay & Montana State).  So you can’t judge yet how both teams will be. Senior QB Zach Collaros is a baller.  He almost led Cinci to a win at Oklahoma last year and had 5 TDs at Louisville in a win. The Vols have two stud WOs Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers who Cinci’s DBs should have a tough time with. Both teams lack on the defense the Vols D is made up of mostly Sophomores and Freshman..  The Vols looked good on paper vs Montana State, but still gave up 350 yards.  I like the OVER 55 and small play on Cincinnati to cover.

3:30 pm Purdue @ Rice +3 – I followed Purdue last week cause I wanted to bet on them to cover vs Middle Tennessee State on a Big Rip, but held back. Thank god cause the Boilermakers needed a late TD to beat a bad MTSU team.  Rice had a much tougher week one, they took their annual thumping vs Texas.  I like Rice +3 with a small play at home, lots of people will bet the better conference theory here.  

Good luck and remember pace yourself,

-SD

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A million? Is that too much?

Factoid for you guys this morning…I read a tweet earlier this week  (forgot the source) but it was that favorites were 38 & 38  ATS the first week of CFB, 38 games went OVER and you guessed it 38 went UNDER. I thought you’d all enjoy this as you have your coffee and toast this fine CFB morning.

Week 2 of College Football should be just as intriguing because by my count there are 17 home dogs today.  As Scott Van Pelt said the other day on his radio show…you are not mandated to have action on every game with a Vegas line. Pace yourselves my degenerate friends.

12:00 pm – Wisconsin -20 1/2 -vs Oregon State – Ok, yes I’m guilty of it. I love betting The University of Wisconsin Badgers, Way. Too. Much.  The Badgers host the Oregon State Beavers today, these guys lost to the inferior FCS (formally known as division 1-AA) Sacramento State Hornets last week at home, this isn’t your 2008 Beavers that upset #1 USC.  The only weapon that OSU possess that could make this a game was freshman RB Malcom Agnew, but he is out with a hammy.  Whisky has a NFL offensive line and two stud RBs, plus their transfer QB Russell Wilson looked great last week.  The Beavers are atrocious bet Whisky -20 1/2. 

12:00 pm – Toledo +19 @ Ohio State –  The Buckeyes beat the Akron Zips last week 128 – 0.  That was a definite “Fuck You Game” after they had all the off-season issues, suspensions, tattoos, Tressel firing, etc.  Today the Rockets who rolled UNH, yes your FCS UNH Wildcats, 58-22 last weekend, go to Columbus to attempt to slow down the Bucs. Remember three years ago the Rockets beat Michigan at the Big House 13-10? Shows they can win on the road in the Big Ten.  Most of the starters on the Rockets are 2 or 3 year vets so I like that. My Guy had this at 18 and I bought it to 19 because it’s such a weird number.  There is always a risk that a game like this could get ugly real quick, but 4th quarter OSU back ups vs Toledo starters could mean a back door cover.  I like The Rockets getting a really weird 19 points, bet ’em.

Be back for some afternoon bets, Good luck boys.

-SD

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