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Don’t Pay the Refs!

Going into the NFL season I had one theory. The scab refs were going to be really awful = lots of points. For example the Refs in the Patriots game have pocketed their whistle on two plays in the end zone when they could have easily flagged the Pats defense for pass interference. I think it has to do with the speed of the game, inexperience and that they don’t want to make the game about them, unlike most refers n pro sports. What does this mean for betting these games? Well, if they are not going to call a lot of penalties and just let players play, I predict there will be tons of totals that go OVER. My 4pm lock

4:25pm Carolina @ Tampa Bay O/U 45 – If Jacksonville and Minnesota can put up 35 pints then the Bucs and Panthers line should 72. They combine for 131 points in the two games they played. Bet the OVER of 45.

Good luck,

-Seth

Football, that is all…

Can you believe it’s been 217 days since Super Bowel 46? 2012 marks the 11th anniversary of me betting on Football (I forgot to celebrate my 10th anniversary last year). I guess celebrating my 10 year would have been nostalgic, unfortunately it’s a bittersweet memory. Remember the story of my first college bookie, Julian, who stiffed me $981 during my Umass winter break? Here’s the post if you need a refresher. So this year is all about celebrating my Undecennial betting season.

Betting football is a funny thing. When I think about 11 years of NFL betting, I start to think if I found another hobby 11 years ago such as writing, playing tennis, computer programming, reading, cooking, playing the guitar, biking, hiking, woodworking, running, sailing or maybe geocaching. I met my maker when I was introduced to Julian and got that infamous 413 phone number. My fate was sealed that first NFL September weekend in Amherst when I won my first NFL bet. I remember that day like my first day of Kindergarten. The windows open at my North Pleasant Street digs on a breezy, sunny Sunday afternoon. I was probably betting the Peyton Manning led Colts who rolled Vinny Testarverde and the Jets 45-24, while I enjoyed a cold, leftover Buffer Zone from D.P. Dough.

It’s remarkable thing that during this time it’s still a challenge to beat the man. You would think that if you spent the 11 years working on a hobby, you’d become an expert, or at the very least better than average.  Maybe I should have spent the last 11 years learning to sail around the world or becoming a world-class cook. I’d have a lot more money, far fewer depressing Sunday nights and ten toes still. There is one thing that we all know. No sailer has ever felt the rush you get when you hit a back door cover with no time on the clock. No Foodie has ever felt the adrenaline pump through your body when a Dollar AR hits on the Sunday Night Football game to get to back to even on the week. And NO Google Code writer has experienced the thrill you get when you high-five your Bros after you all hit the OVER of the Monday NIght Football game.

I love football.

For your reading pleasure my Week 1 picks as you enjoy your coffee and Pizzelle on this glorious September Boston morning.

1pm Buffalo @ NY Jets -2.5 - You can thank ESPN for this line dropping from 7 to 2.5. The story all offseason has been what will Rex Ryan do with Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow and how the Jets can’t put the ball in the end zone. The fact of the matter is that Mark Sanchez is the starting QB and Tim Tebow will step on the field for the pre-game warmups, when he runs off during halftime and at the end of the game for the post game prayer/celebration. Like many of you I hate betting on Mark Sanchez, but would you rather put money on Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road who is 1-5 against the Jets? I feel a lot more confident betting on a really good Jets D against a shaky Fitzpatrick. Bet the Jets -2.5

1pm Miami @ Houston -12.5 – Don’t fear the big line, embrace it. This should be the biggest thumping in Week 1. Miami has a Rookie QB, new coach and no weapons. I’ll take side action that Matt Moore replaces Ryan Tannehill by the 4th quater. Why I love this. Even with Mario Williams leaving, Houston still has top ranked defense. Plus, Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, J.J. Watt, Andrew Johnson all have a chip on their shoulder after last year when they were in perfect position to make it to the SB before Schaub was injured. The Texans were still able to make it to the 2nd round in the playoffs behind TJ Yates. I don’t usually predict scores, but here is one Texans 38 – Miami 6. 

1pm Rams +9 @ Detroit – The Public loves betting the team that puts up the big numbers, but watch out here for a possible upset.  For me Sam Bradford is on a short  betting leash, if he’s going to do well it’s today, the Lions just made their starting Safety and CB inactive.  They Rams will also be better coached with Jeff Fisher and one thing to note, Fisher is one of the best NFL coaches ATS . Take the points 

Seth’s Free Money Three Team Tease Bears -1, Eagles -1 & Texans/ Dolphins Total 32.5 

I’ll be back for the 4pms, which kickoff this year at 4:25pm. Good luck and as always be sure to pace yourselves my degenerate friends.

-Seth

Hello friends. So it’s be some time since we have last spoke. I was going to wait until Football season to relaunch BigRips, but I couldn’t help to stay away with all this steroid news the last few weeks.

First, Melky Cabrera, MVP and batting champ contender, in a contract year was on the verge of solidifying an 80 million dollar pay day. Well just so happens Melky has been on the sauce this year, he even took it a step further and made a fake web-site to cover his tracks. No beuno Melky. With your history of hanging with porn stars, you should have used the Ryan Braun herpes excuse. Next Barolo Colon aka Fatolo Colon whose career was over 6 years ago was busted for juicing. Not the poster child for the steroid community. Have you seen his gut lately ? Finally, Lance Armstrong, Mr. Livestrong, 7 time Tour De France winner, was stripped of his 7 championships after he dropped his fight against the drug charges. Armstrong said in his statement “Today I turn the page. I will no longer address this issue, regardless of the circumstances.” Apparently he took PR advice from Mark McGwire who infamously said “I’m not here to talk about the past” in front of congress.

Today I am here to talk about the past, here are the top ten steroids stories involving athletes who used performance enhancing drugs and their tall tales.

#10 Alex Rodriguez, MLB - ARod went on 60 Minutes and told Katie Couric in ’07 that he never used steroids, HGH or other performance enhancing drugs. He also told Katie that he was “never tempted” to take them because he felt he worked hard enough to compete without them. When he finally fessed up, his excuse “I was under an enormous amount of pressure”. ARod is on the DL and hasn’t hit more then 35 HRs since 2008

#9 Bret Boone, MLB - “Shh, don’t tell anybody” is what Bret told Jose Canseco when he started using. Canseco said it was obvious to everyone in baseball because of his cartoon character shape. Bret Boone averaged 14 HRs for 9 seasons suddenly found his stroke at 32 and doubled what he averaged for power numbers (37 HRs and 141 RBIs). He retired on ’06 citing a lack of passion for the game, a year after MLB put in place new testing policy.

#8 Alex Sanchez, MLB – An obscure player during the mid 2000s, Alex, was the first player busted under the MLB ‘s new testing policy. Never a power guy (career high 2 HRs) but he did steal a lot bases when he was on PEDs. Sanchez was suspended in ’05 said this “I take some kind of stuff I buy over the counter. multi-vitamin…muscle relaxers…Stuff to give me energy.” Who doesn’t pop a few over the counter muscles relaxers to get past that 2:30 feeling. Alex Sanchez now plays somewhere in Mexico.

#7 Marion Jones, Olympian - Jones who took enough juice to grow a pair of testicles, took those balls with her to a press conference, after she was investigated by BALCO. She said “I’ll answer questions in front of US Senate…I’ve accomplished what I’ve accomplished by my God given abilities” She later had to admit to using steroids when her attorney told her that she’d get 5-10 for perjury. After confessing Jones did 6 months in jail.

#6 Floyd Landis, Cyclist – Remember Sleepy Floyd Landis who toured America denying doping allegations after he won the Tour De France. He once said the higher than normal testosterone levels in his urine were from “…drinking a lot of Whisky…” I’m going to use that excuse the next time I fail a drug test at workLandis is training to get into NASCAR.

#5 Ken Caminiti, MLB – The ’96 NL MVP once said  “I’ve made a ton of mistakes. I don’t think using steroids is one of them.” Caminiti died in ’04 at 41, of coronary artery disease and an enlarged heart, both common side effects of juicing

#4 Shawne Merriman, NFL – At 21 he was the Defensive Rookie of the year and was suspended at 22 for a positive steroid test. An NFL source said that his positive test was “definitely for steroids … not one of those supplement deals.” Merriman went on to deny that he used Nandrolone (which has to be injected to work) and that it must have been put into the supplements that he was taking. He also went on the choke slam Tila Tequila. Merriman was cut by the Bills this year

#3 Tyler Hamilton, Cyclist - Not a household name, but Tyler Hamilton had one of the better excuses. He caught doping and suspended for two years for blood doping in 2004. His excuse? Hamilton said he had a “vanishing twin” which is a twin that died in utero. This was true, but apparently his twin can vanish and reappear on demand, because he tested negative 2 months before his positive test. Hamilton attempted a comeback in ’08 but was caught for doping and suspended for 8 years.

#2 Rocky, Boxing – I know he’s just a movie character, but I bet if you polled most Americans there would be a large percentage of the population that thinks Rocky Balboa was a real person. Rocky, well Sly Stallone, made millions off his Rocky movies and denies using steroids. He once told Matt Lauer on the Today Show “You have to put in years and years and years of hard labor to stay in shape,” It also doesn’t hurt to pump yourself with 48 vials of HGH, which is what Sly was caught with in ’06.

#1 Tiger Woods, Golf – Tiger has never tested positive but his doctor Dr. Galea has supplied athletes with HGH and was arrested in Toronto for carrying enough HGH to make Barry Bonds blush. He has treated 23 different athletes, 7 are confirmed with HGH. Add in the decline of his skills and his body breaking down (Achilles, hip, knee) before his 35th birthday, it’s just a matter of time before a teary eyed Tiger confuses on 60 minutes. Tiger hasn’t won a major since 2008

Of all these athletes the amount of time spent in jail for using drugs they obtained illegally is 6 months (Marion Jones). The lesson here, cheat to make your millions, then deny when you get accused. Then confess when the real heat comes down on you and you’ll be ok.

-Seth

Hello Friends

will-return-clock

September 5th…

-Seth

As Jim Nantz says, this should be one for the ages. I’m really excited for this game, can’t wait. Thanks again to Drew Bledsoe for making this all happen.

Here are my props and pick as you get ready for Super Bowl 46.

Deion Branch Props – what is lost in all of the Gronk, Welker and even Ocho chatter is the former Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch. Brady’s safety net has 21 catches for 276 yards in two Super Bowls. Brady to Branch all day. Betting Branch OVER 3 catches, OVER 40 1/2 reception yards and +1000 to catch the first TD of the game. 

Aaron Hernandez Prop - He tweeted the other night that he can’t wait to be realeased from his cage. Yikes. I like him to have at least one of his signature catch and runs for 20+ yards, bet the OVER of Aaron Hernandez reception yards 68 1/2.

Ochocino Prop - Ochco to catch first TD of the game +4000, this has dropped to the +2250, probably partly due to Tiquan being cut. Hey if at the time little used Brandon Stokely can do it and Max McGee with a hangover then, why not Ocho.

Will the game be tied after the First Score?  Yes -105. 

Rob Ninkovich props - So far he has been on the of the best guys on defense for the Pats during the Playoffs. He had a huge game against Baltimore and Denver, Spikes and Mayo will command a lot the attention from Giants blockers. Also, one of his best games of year was against the Giants.  OVER 5 1/2 Tackles and Assists.

Danny Woodhead prop – Taking the OVER of 23 rushing yards

D.J. Ware propTo score first TD of game +3000 

Total number of Kick Offs returnedUnder 6, no elements in a dome. I’ll take the Under.

6:20 Giants vs Patriots -150 - I’m going with the ML, my prediction is a 27-20 game. Go Pats.

Good luck,

-SD

 

I’m not going to belabor the point too much, but I don’t believe in Tim Tebow. If you have talked to me, read my posts or heard me call into the Felger & Mazz show in the last 2 months, you would know this. The facts are perfectly clear. Tim had a winning streak against less than mediocre opposing QBs,who couldn’t stay on the field. He won his first playoff game because of a horrid game plan by Dick Lebeau (who has to almost be in Joe Pa status), Ryan Clark’s sickle cell and a back up a center not being able to snap a shotgun pass. When Tim was in a position to win the game on their last possession in regulation Tim one hopped a wide open Demaryius Thomas, running a post on 3rd and 8. It showed Tim can’t string consecutive passes underneath, which plays perfectly into the Pats zone defense. Make him complete a shit load of passes if he does and can score a lot, then we are not good enough to be in the playoffs and we’d lose to the Ravens/ Texans next anyway. Here is  my pick which might surprise you as your enjoy your coffee and Pizelle on a cold, but at least there’s no snow, NFL Playoff Saturday in January.

Denver @ New England -20 1/2 – 20 1/2 what kind of line is that? Well My Guy offers “adjusted spreads” and if I’m that adamant that this is going to be blow out city, I have to put my money where my mouth is. Also is +230. I rarely predict scores (I think I’m 2-0 this year when I do) Give me the Pats rolling the Willis McGahee lead Denver Broncos at 41-17, bet the 13 1/2 and 20 1/2.

Saints vs 49ers – 3 1/2 - Once again I’m going with the adjusted line idea. I don’t love this bet as much as the Pats but I like the payout, bet San Fran -3 1/2 +255

Props:

McGahee & Ball vs BJGE & Woodhead +24 1/2 receiving and rushing yards – I  like the Pats tandem in this especially if they go with the hurry up, you’ll see more of Woodhead than Ridely or Benny. For good or bad Woodhead always seems to be apart of the Belichick’s game plan in crucial games.

Tom Brady O/U 2 1/2 TD passes - According to my score prediction they run away with this one and that means lots of Brady to Gronk, Welker and don’t be surprised if Ocho grabs one. Bet the OVER 2 1/2.  

Frank Gore O/U 76 yards rushing – Give me the over, the best game plan for the 49ers is for them to grind it out with Gore and to keep the Saints off the field. I Like a

David Akers 8 1/2 points – One of the best kicking seasons of all time, a grinder of game, maybe a funny 18-14 final...I like Akers OVER 8 1/2 points. 

Will Brady Quinn see the field before the 4th quarter Yes +150 / No -120 – If this prop was real I’d bet Yes for a lot of money. How else will Denver pass themselves back into this game?

Good luck, be sure to pace yourselves my degenerate friends,

-SD

Welcome to 2012, picks up soon

-Seth

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